2009 will probably be best remembered for the “Great Recession.” And for those who graduate from college this year, the recession may continue for many years.
Lisa Kahn, an economist at the Yale School of Management, believes that graduating from college in the middle of an economic downturn has serious long-term effects. In her paper, “The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy,” she takes data from a longitudinal study of white males who graduated from college between 1979 and 1989, and analyzes the data to see what effect, if any, the serious recession of the early 1980s had on the job prospects of these people. Not surprisingly, she found immediate “negative wage effects” for those who graduated in the worst years of the recession — common sense dictates that when you enter the job market for the first time during a recession, you’re lucky to find a job at all, let alone find a job that pays well.
Kahn also found that those negative wage effects persisted through the entire period of the longitudinal study. The people who graduated from college during a recession never made as much money as those who graduated during better economic times. This does not augur well for those who just graduated from college — or for anyone just entering the job market for the first time during the Great Recession.
I worry about those entering the job market right now, because I was one of those who graduated from college during the recession of the early 80s. [Update: But see Jean’s comment below for another view.] To a large extent I fit that pattern that Kahn describes in her paper. I had great difficulty finding a job right after graduation, and I wound up spending more than a dozen years working in jobs that did not require a college diploma. For a few years during that time I had a decent salary, but at another time I could have qualified for food stamps. If my experience was at all representative, those who are graduating from college during the current recession may struggle financially, may experience feelings of personal failure, and may find it difficult to find a job related to their education or training.
If there’s one thing we remember about the Great Recession in the years to come, I hope we remember that those who entered the job market in these years may need extra moral and financial support from all of us.
Well, I too graduated about when you did, and also took a series of not so great jobs. And, in fact, I *did* have food stamps for a time. Yes, and really swell government cheese too.
However…as difficult as those years were financially, intellectually, and emotionally, I would not trade them for anything. In fact, doing a series of jobs that did not require a college education made me appreciate all the more the value of such an education — and not for the jobs it may or may not land you, but rather for the intellectual and creative doors it opens in your mind. Yes, I was deeply frustrated working in a drugstore with my B.A. in English, but I wrote some terrific stuff during that time. Yes, I was also deeply frustrated working in a greenhouse, as a secretary, a floral arranger, an adminstrative assistant, after I earned my MFA. But I got a book out of it.
And yes, when I couldn’t land a tenure-line job at first, and worked for five years as a contractual (year by year or course by course) english professor, it made me furious at the system that rewarded those who had gone straight through school — BA to PhD to teaching assistant to assistant professor — and penalized me for not doing the same. But I hung in there, finally landed the tenure line job and got tenure. And, because of my background, I “get” who my students are, I can speak to them, teach effectively, and I do not take where I am for granted, do not see myself as a privileged elite intellectual dispensing wisdom of the ages to the masses (as some — oh, hell, many — of my colleagues do).
I don’t know, Dan. I’m not sure that a recession is such a bad thing. Sure, it’s hard. Very hard. I know that as well as anyone — then and now. But it also is a time that can galvanize people, bring out unknown strengths, and teach skills that are useful for a lifetime. A little hardship is a good thing. Not misery. Hardship. There’s a difference.
Jean @ 1 — Good points all around. Thanks for presenting the positive side!
I still worry about two things, though: (1) College debt levels are typically much higher than when you and I graduated, and I do worry about people graduating this spring with huge college debt; and (2) Health care has gotten a lot more expensive in the last 25 years, and where in the 1980s I could afford basic health insurance but no dental care (I’m still paying for those years of no dental care), I worry that this year’s graduates may be able to afford less than I had.
Ah. Send your college hopefuls to me, my friend. They can get a very very good education at my college, where tuition is $600 a course, more or less. So, a five course load, two semesters, $6000. We have no dorms (yet) but we do have a block of apartments near the campus that many students live in. And, rent on the whole here in Richmond, Indiana, is fairly cheap: I have an entire house for $800 a month. As for health care, students can get coverage for $1184 a year, through IU.
So, I’m just not buying your argument. Because I think it rests on a central premise that students must go to so-called “good” colleges (the ones that cost tens of thousands of dollars a year) in order to find “good” jobs (the ones that pay tens of thousands of dollars a year) in “good” parts of the country (anything that isn’t the Midwest, I’d bet). Adjusting one’s definitions of what is good is important, first of all. I’d like to make a case for the education we are providing at Indiana University East as being quite good; life in Richmond can also be quite good. No, I’m not a shill for the Chamber of Commerce, or the PR dept. of my school. I’ve just lived here long enough to realize how much I have to be very happy about.
Jean @ 3 — All that still adds up to more than I paid per year at college on average (after correcting for inflation). And out here in California, the UC system is even more expensive than IU, and the way things are going it is likely to keep getting more expensive. Remember that there are plenty of kids who simply cannot move from here in California out to the Midwest (and remember that there are an awful lot of kids in California who are first generation college students, non-traditional students, etc.).
Of course what I’m really worried about is what happens after college.
Landing a sweet job pretty much boils down to personal networking, in my experience. Career advice books tend to echo that sentiment as well — cold-calling job prospects is a very low-yield game.
Our university has just started really focusing on preparing students to move into the job market; I wish someone would teach a class on shmoozing, though. Shmoozing is SUCH a good skill to have.
Aaron @ 5 — You write: “I wish someone would teach a class on shmoozing, though. Shmoozing is SUCH a good skill to have.”
Not a bad idea. Even if it’s an informal, non-credit class.
I incorporate bits of shmooze 101 into classes. You know: elevator speech, staying up on chattable current events, combing your hair. That kind of thing.
I don’t know, Dan. I’m not sure that a recession is such a bad thing. Sure, it’s hard. Very hard. I know that as well as anyone — then and now. But it also is a time that can galvanize people, bring out unknown strengths, and teach skills that are useful for a lifetime.
But how is this different than beating your chest and saying, ‘I graduated from the School of Hard Knocks, by golly, and it didn’t do me any harm! You kids nowadays don’t know what trouble is! Why, back in my day….’