Maine’s governor, John Baldacci, did the right thing today and signed a bill legalizing same-sex marriage in Maine. Like many others, I do hope that Barack Obama was listening when Baldacci said: “In the past, I opposed gay marriage while supporting the idea of civil unions. I have come to believe that this is a question of fairness and of equal protection under the law, and that a civil union is not equal to civil marriage.”
This makes five states that now have legal same-sex marriage. There are something like twenty-five states that have outlawed same-sex marriage. However, since younger voters increasingly favor legalizing same-sex marriage, I hope it’s just a matter of time before most of those twenty-five states do the right thing, and alter their laws to allow same-sex marriage.
About a month ago, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com had a fascinating analysis of when he thinks voters in various states would reject a same-sex marriage ban in their state. According to his analysis, opposition to SSM is losing ground at 2% per year and almost half the states would reject SSM bans by 2012 — Mississippi will be the final holdout, waiting until 2024 to finally reject a SSM ban. Maine is on his list as ready to reject a ban now, which is important because it looks like there will be a referendum to overturn the legislature’s vote. Here’s hoping ME voters do as Nate predicts and uphold the legislature’s vote.
I think it’s pretty safe to predict that Barack Obama will be the last Democratic nominee for President who opposes same-sex marriage. When he finally comes around on this will be interesting to see.